Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Player Projection No. 144 Rafael Soriano

Key Stats: Rafael Soriano struck out 12.13 batters per 9 innings last season which was better than Carlos Marmol's (number 147) 11.31 batters per 9 innings in 2009. In fact only Jonathan Broxton had a better strikeout rate among closers with at least ten saves.

Skeptics Say: Can he stay healthy for two consecutive seasons? The 75.2 innings at the MLB level that he threw in 2009 is a new career high. Since his rookie season in 2002, Soriano has failed to reach 30 professional innings in three different seasons (2004, 2005, and 2008). The seasons he has missed were a result of Tommy John and elbow surgery which isn't exactly minor stuff for a guy who makes a living off of his right arm. Having that arm on your roster is like letting Homer Simpson act as a nuclear power plant safety instructor - the threat of a disaster is always prevalent.

In addition to the injury questions, Soriano is also a free agent this offseason which means he could sign with a team to be a set up man. This isn't likely since more money is generally paid to closers, but the Yankees or another deep pocket team could come calling. Before last year, Soriano had never had a season with double digit saves so it's not as if he wouldn't accept that role if the largest bidder asked him. Given the hole he would leave in Atlanta's bullpen though, I don't foresee the Braves letting him get away.

Peer Comparison: Please stop casually reading. I'm calling on all readers to take up the movement. Our nation's ears and eyes are led hopelessly into the monopolistic analysis of ESPN every year about how saves are simply saves. Doesn't matter if they are Shawn Chacon or Mariano Rivera. Brad Lidge then or Brad Lidge now. It's propaganda! All of it. The evidence is right here.

Let's say the three closers on your team last season were Soriano, Jose Valverde and Fernando Rodney. They are a realistic, mediocre group that could be put on one fantasy roster considering their value coming into the 2009 season and even heading into the 2010 sesaon. This was their combined totals last year:

7 wins, 89 saves, 219 strikeouts, 3.33 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 205.1 innings pitched

That innings total would have put this trio among the top 30 starting pitchers in baseball for innings pitched. The weight of their ERA and WHIP is equivalent to that of a number three starting pitcher. The 219 strikeouts would have put them ahead of Felix Hernandez for 7th in MLB. In other words these three guys are four category players just like starting pitchers.

Granted, the weight of one reliever is less than one starting pitcher. And the turnover among closers in baseball is more significant (although quite overblown) than the turnover among starters. At some point though every winning fantasy baseball team needs to have not just closers, but relievers who can pitch. The fantasy game is ultimately won by very small decimals in ERA and WHIP and a handful of extra strikeouts throughout the season. Nine times out of ten the champion of your league has a set of relievers who helps the team in four categories instead of just one. Which is why when a paid reporter and two-time fantasy writer of the year has Ryan Franklin ranked 6 spots ahead of Soriano among relievers I have to ask every set of eyes on this to please join the movement. Saves are saves, but relief pitchers are four category players.

Team Outlook: If Soriano stays with the Braves, he will be given plenty of opportunities. During one stretch in September the Braves were 15-1 and looked like a playoff team. With a rotation led by Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, and Tommy Hanson and a lineup led by Chipper isn't he a grandfather now Jones (didn't make countdown) this team will be involved in many 2-1 and 3-2 games which is great news for Soriano's owners. Remember too that Mike Gonzalez was the closer at the start of the season, so that's 10 saves on top of the 27 Soriano finished with in 2009.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #16 Relief Pitcher; Eric Karabell at ESPN.com: #23 Relief Pitcher; Fantasy Baseball 365: #10 Relief Pitcher; Bullpen Box Score: #13 Closer

Projection: Didn't even get to mention a .199 batting average against. If he's healthy, he's going to be better than 144.
33 saves 4 wins 85 strikeouts 2.44 ERA 1.03 WHIP in 68.1 innings
Happy Veteran's Day and thanks to all the troops out there. Stay safe.

4 comments:

KOBEshigawa said...

I'm torn on this guy - he could be an elite closer if healthy (and if the braves are good), but every time i see this guy throw, i think he's going to blow out his elbow. Also, most of these player projections are done before free agents are signed (such as in Soriano's case). I'm assuming these rankings change if say, Soriano signs with the Yanks or Sox (basically any team with a steady closer) as a set-up man? Will your list at then end of the off-season reflect these changes in personell?

Also, good call on closers being 4-category players. I'm tired of all the haters out there

SaltyBiscuits said...

Hey Mark!

Long time no talk. I just thought I'd drop a line that Soriano checked in as my #13 closer heading into 2010, on my newly updated rankings. For him, its all about staying healthy.

Keep up the great work.

Schruender said...

Hey Kobe great question. I will adjust the rankings if Soriano loses his job. Last year actually I had Ben Sheets ranked in the 130s and once the news came that he was done for the season I just added a new player (I think it was Javier Vazquez). And if Soriano doesn't get a closer job he isn't worth drafting.

Scott great to hear from you. I'll have to link your rankings in here too. Thanks for letting me know.

john said...

I've told you before Mark, I don follow fantasy baseball so all this blabber is that when it come to fantasy numbers!

Ok now that I got that out.
I really do like reading your articles. The combined numbers of those 3 pitches was far more impressive when I saw you write it then when I guessed it in my head before I scrolled down. :)

Either way when it comes to fantasy numbers (for those who play) Soriano is far more valuable if hes a closer and honestly if he were to sign with a team like the Yankees his vaule almost completly falls off the table unless you are playing for holds.

As a fan of the Braves, I'd love to see him back with the club but I do gotta admit I did fear what Kobe said everytime he came out to pitch.

Keep up the work, I can't wait to see the next one

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