Francisco Rodriguez Player Projection No. 89

Key Stats: There are two schools of thought when it comes to Francisco Rodriguez in fantasy baseball. There's the 2008 school which saw him be arguably the most valuable player in all of fantasy baseball when he put together the stats of two closers in setting the saves record. Then there's 2009, when greedy owners expected better from him moving from the AL to the NL and in which he thoroughly disappointed by more than a run and a half. We knew the saves weren't going to increase because most relievers are lucky to get 50 opportunities, let alone the 69 he had in 2008. Those who draft him hope he's old school in 2010, but I am slightly pessimistic.

Skeptics Say: K-Rod's strand rate was unlucky last year, so give him the benefit of the doubt with that one and a half run climb in ERA. On the other hand his strand rate in 2008, was lucky, so don't go too easy on him. His ERA should fall right in the middle of where it's been the last couple of seasons. That would put his ERA right below 3 for the season. Good, but as the peer comparison suggests, his numbers can be had by far cheaper options later in the draft.

Peer Comparison: You ever go to the supermarket and see the choice of 2 liter sodas is Cola Fiz at 89 cents and the Coca Cola is 1.99? The Cola Fiz comes with the same taste as far as I can tell, but doesn't have the brand name that Coke does. K-Rod is a brand. The fist pumps, the playoff performances his whole career, the big markets he's played in, and the record have all come together to give him a higher price, but you can get Cola Fiz a few rounds later and experience the same numbers if you are patient. K-Rod had a slightly less than 3 ERA, slightly over one strikeout per inning and will be granted as many opportunities as his teammates will allow him. Here's some closers who did that last year and where Mock Draft Central is seeing them come off the board.

Heath Bell - 99th in MDC
Andrew Bailey - 130th in MDC
Jose Valverde - 139th in MDC
Brian Wilson - 145th in MDC
David Aardsma - 152nd in MDC
Rafael Soriano - 154th in MDC

It's not like you're going on a date here it's fantasy baseball. Take the Cola Fiz and use the money you save to buy your girl flowers.

Team Outlook: Well Jason Bay is going to give the Mets a couple more wins, but he will be a reason that wins go for more than three runs and will also be a defensive liability in left field. So does K-Rod benefit from his arrival? I don't think so, but then again it's a left fielder, so just how much impact can he have on a closer?

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #5 Relief Pitcher; ESPN.com: #79 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #82 Overall; Couch Managers: #106 Overall

Projection: The 35 saves K-Rod got last year was a 5-year low. He'll get to 40 for the 6th time in 7 years.
5 wins 40 saves 2.90 ERA 1.28 WHIP 77K in 74 innings

Shane Victorino Player Projection No. 90

Key Stats: As a hitter by the statistics, Shane Victorino was pretty much the same guy for two straight years, but he was ranked number 53 on last year's countdown. So, why the demotion? First of all, as that post indicates I believed Victorino was going to approach 20 home runs based on the power he displayed late in the year, but he only got to 10 home runs. After three straight seasons of 10-14 home runs, it's safe to say what this guy's ceiling is in this category. Secondly, the Flyin Hawaiin was rather grounded last year. The steal attempts went down from 47 to 33 despite getting to the plate 67 more times last year.

Skeptics Say: Away from Citizens Bank Park, Victorino was a less than desirable option for fantasy owners. Given that he didn't home runs and was running less, the .267 average on the road made him as useful as a public relations firm run by Gilbert Arenas.

Peer Comparison: There's not a good reason for Andre Ethier to be drafted after Victorino, but Mock Draft Central is seeing that happen in the average mock. Each player brings a different skill (speed vs. power) to the table, but Ethier seems to be trending up while Victorino is heading slightly down.

For a general idea of how valuable Victorino's steals are, there were 29 players who stole 20 to 29 bases last year in Major League Baseball and 17 players that stole 30 or more. In other words Victorino's steals used to be like diamonds but now they are like coal.

So throwing out that statistic, Ethier can hang with Victorino in all the other stats and crushes Victorino in home runs, RBI, and OPS.

Lineup Outlook: It's why Victorino is ranked where he is. The Phillies lineup scored more runs than any team in the NL and could have scored more if Jimmy Rollins played anywhere close to the level that he played at when he was the MVP in 2007. Victorino set a new career high in RBI despite Rollins' OBP of only .296, but he will drive in more this season.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #21 Outfielder; ESPN.com: #76 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #69 Overall; Couch Mangers: #71 Overall

Projection: He's going to be 30, so the safe play would be to predict more of the same after two very similar statistical seasons. Let's be boring.
109R 11 HR 65 RBI 27 SB .277 AVG .790 OPS

Andrew Bailey Player Projection No. 91

Key Stats: Before the 2009 season nobody knew who this guy was. That's still the case now except among fantasy baseball dorks. Andrew Bailey isn't a household name, but he had a better season than Mariano Rivera. Sometimes rookie pitchers can come up and impress immediately. Their stuff is brand new and their arms are fresh. Eventually they will wear down though. Not the case with Bailey last season. Bailey's WHIP in August and September was 0.36 and 0.75. He was getting better as the season progressed. He never even had a bad month - the worst month by ERA was May when he had a respectable 3.24 ERA.

Skeptics Say: Only Jonathan Broxton was ranked higher among relievers than Bailey when the season was over, but on the FBHS countdown, there are six players ranked above Bailey. He just isn't trustworthy. Bailey was a much less effective pitcher in 2006-2008 when he was coming up through the A's system as a 6th round draft pick. In 2008 he walked 2 more batters per 9 innings than he did last year. His home run to fly ball rate was only 5.6% last year and FIP was three-quarters of a run higher than his actual ERA. Bill James seems to agree that Bailey will regress next year.

Peer Comparison: The skeptics are right to a certain extent, but where Bailey is going in mock drafts and preseason rankings tells me the skeptics are taking it a little too far. Bailey had 29 appearances where he did not allow a base runner last year. That is talent and job security at a position where job security is not guaranteed to half of the players drafted at this position every year. Looking at Mock Draft Central, it's a joke to see who is going directly ahead of Bailey. Rafael Furcal and Chipper Jones. Jones OPS fell almost 200 points last year and is more of a question to stay in the lineup than any top twenty closer will be to keep their job. The most home runs Furcal has in the last three years was 9 and he only stole 12 bases last season. Two players are going above Bailey simply because of fame.

Team Outlook: The A's have had finished with 76, 75, and 75 wins the last three years. Their relievers have combined for 36, 33, and 38 saves in those three seasons, but they have not had one reliever record 30 or more saves in a season since Huston Street did so when they were a playoff team in 2006. That changes this year - well the 30 saves part anyway.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #13 Relief Pitcher; ESPN.com: #129 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #130 Overall

Projection: A little better than Heath Bell next year, but in either case you have to love falling asleep on the east coast with a guy in a pitcher's park ready to get a save as you dream.
4 wins 36 saves 2.66 ERA 1.15 WHIP 81K in 74 innings

Yovani Gallardo Player Ranking No. 92

Key Stats: My least favorite moment from the 2008 season was watching the Brewers game from my computer as Yovani Gallardo went down to a knee injury that eventually cost him his season. After pitching toward the end of 2008 under circumstances he probably would not pitch again under (the Brewers were actually in the playoffs), Gallardo proved he was healthy last April. He stormed out of the gates with a 0.87 WHIP in his first 5 starts last year. In total he made 30 starts and this is the key stat of all key stats because he could have made more in September, but the Brewers elected to shut him down after he basically hadn't pitched in 2008 and threw 185.2 innings last year.

Skeptics Say: That's a pretty large gain in innings, pitches, or any other measurement you want to use. The good news is that he threw 155 innings in 2006 and 187 combined between the minors and majors in 2007. The knee proved to be fine, but the arm definitely showed fatigue as the calendar turned to August and September. Gallardo had an ERA over 5 in both of those months.

Peer Comparison: Gallardo's most valuable contribution to fantasy teams is the strikeouts he brings. If the Brewers didn't shut down Gallardo he would have been able to make two to three more starts last year and had the opportunity to finish in the top in all of baseball in overall strikouts. As it were he was one of only 10 pitchers to finish with over 200 strikeouts last year. That's a valuable stat to acquire at pick number 100, which is where he's going in the drafts conducted at Mock Draft Central.

Some analysts preach that hitters should be taken before pitchers at all costs in the early rounds because of the reduced injury risk. If you subscribe to that theory, Gallardo is almost a necessity. Players like Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke are essentially ruled out by these owners because they are taken as high as the first or second round. Even someone like Felix Hernandez (29th on MDC) or Dan Haren (37th on MDC) are taken too early according to this perspective. Eventually, you need to combat the 200 strikeout players with your own 200 strikeout guy. Unlike a stat such as saves that can be acquired after draft day, strikeouts are a lot harder to come by on the wire.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Gallardo finish with a better overall line than Hernandez or Haren. He already has a better strikeout per nine rate than both by more than one strikeout. Gallardo did have a 3.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in the first half. If he sustains that next season (remember last year was his first full big league season), and Haren and Hernandez (coming off career years) fade back just a little Gallardo will be right with them.

Team Outlook: The Brewers elected not to bring Jason Kendall back and have veteran Greg Zaun calling pitches now. What Zaun has left in the tank as a hitter remains a question mark, but at least he has 15 seasons of pitch selection experience for Gallardo to fall back on. The Brewers also signed Randy Wolf to a three year deal which will hopefully take some of the pressure off Gallardo to be the guy that has to go 7 or 8 innings every outing in order to save the pen.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #19 Starting Pitcher; ESPN.com: #71 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #100 Overall; Couch Managers: #106 Overall

Projection: He'll crack the top five in strikeouts in 2010.
14 wins 3.43 ERA 1.27 WHIP 232 K in 203 innings

Torii Hunter Player Projection No. 93

Key Stats: Drafting Torii Hunter is the equivalent to opening the envelope when you were ten years old on your birthday. Unlike the other presents which were wrapped in different sizes depending on the gift, the envelope wasn't a mystery. There was going to be money inside. Hunter is money. He doesn't bring the same excitement or potential to the pick as Andrew McCutchen would, but he won't disappoint either like the big box that turns out to be holding a smaller box that holds an ugly sweater. In 8 of the last 9 seasons Hunter has had at least 20 home runs. In five of the last six seasons he's had at leats 18 steals. In three of the last four seasons he's driven in at least 90 and scored at least 85. That's consistency.

Skeptics Say: Hunter missed over a month last year to a groin injury. He had sports hernia surgery earlier in the offseason and claims to be feeling much better. He'll turn 35 right around the All-Star break though and like Raul Ibanez who suffered a groin injury last summer, I don't feel comfortable taking him at his word. Especially given that a lot of his value is derived from being a base stealer, Hunter's health is a serious question next season.

Peer Comparison: Before last season, Alfonso Soriano was ahead of Hunter on the cheat sheet every season since 2002. This year he's not, and it seems a little strange given how much higher Soriano was at his peak and that he's about a year younger than Hunter. Looking at the last couple of seasons though, it's evident that Hunter's passing Soriano in drafts is something that didn't happen over night. He has been closing the gap and aging much more gracefully the last couple of years.

Hunter 2007: .334 OBP .287 AVG 18 SB 107 RBI 94 R 28 HR
Soriano 2007: .337 OBP .299 AVG 19 SB 70 RBI 97 R 33 HR

Hunter 2008: .344 OBP .278 AVG 19 SB 78 RBI 85 R 21 HR
Soriano 2008: .344 OBP .280 AVG 19 SB 75 RBI 76 R 29 HR

Hunter 2009: .366 OBP .299 AVG 19 SB 90 RBI 74 R 22 HR
Soriano 2009: .303 OBP .241 AVG 9 SB 55 RBI 64 R 20 HR

Both of these players missed significant action last season and I would take the over on them missing 15 games in 2010. That said, even if Soriano has a bounce back year, it isn't likely he'll be able to play at Hunter's level.

Lineup Outlook: The Angels lost Chone Figgins to the rival Mariners this offseason and Torii Hunter lost a player he drove in quite a bit in his two seasons with the Angels. Early indications from Mike Scioscia are that Maicer Izturis will replace Figgins at the top of the lineup. Needless to say it's a downgrade for the whole offense. Figgins had an OBP of .395 last season which is significantly better than Izturis who had a .359 OBP. Figgins was also a distraction to pitchers with his 42 steals which enabled teammates to guess pitch type and location better as well as have a runner in scoring position quite frequently. Izturis had only 13 steals.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #27 Outfielder; ESPN.com: #87 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #97 Overall; Couch Managers ADP: #94 Overall

Projection: With Figgins gone, and Hunter and Bobby Abreu one year older it will be interesting to see just how aggresive the Angels will be on the bases in 2010. Look for a small fall in the steals.
83R 25 HR 96 RBI 13 SB .279 AVG .860 OPS

Matt Cain Player Projection No. 94

Key Stats: Enough with all these end of the decade countdowns. Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols were the best hitters while Randy Johnson and Johan Santana were the best pitchers. Take Mariano Rivera as a closer and walah! You have your team of the decade.

On with the more relevant countdown - the one that looks ahead to the 2010 season instead of looking back to when Randy Johnson had a back. Matt Cain finished 2009 ranked as the 47th best overall player by Yahoo's standards. He was very lucky. Not to say that it wasn't well-deserved because the season before he had a better strikeout rate and a FIP that was 0.02 off of what it was last season and his ranking by Yahoo wound up being 704. Things have a way of evening themselves out over time. This year it will be the equivalent to the Baby Bear's soup in Goldilocks.

Skeptics Say: In terms of where his ERA was and where it should have been, only Jair Jurrjens was luckier. Only J.A. Happ had a higher percentage of batters stranded on base last year in all of baseball than Cain. Those runs are bound to score in 2010 at a normal rate. Also, considering that Cain's walk rate went from 3.76 per 9 innings in 2008 to 3.02 per game, chances are that his WHIP might regress a little back to where it was in previous seasons. Of course there's the possibility that he has gotten a better feel for his control, but with 9 games of 4 or more walks last year I doubt that.

Peer Comparison: It's time for the weekly argument for why tiers isn't the best solution to the problem. Let's say that Cain and Yovani Gallardo are on the same tier. If an owner selects Cain it means that another owner should select Gallardo shortly thereafter. It's terrible logic. Gallardo is better than Cain. Look carefully at the numbers:

Gallardo - 13 wins 9.89 K/9 3.73 ERA 1.31 WHIP 3.97 FIP
Cain - 14 wins 7.07 K/9 2.89 ERA 1.18 WHIP 3.89 FIP

Disregard wins because there are so many other factors independent of just how good the individual is and how good a team should be on paper in the next season. Also, more attention should be paid to FIP than ERA given the luck that Cain had with stranding runners as mentioned above. Focusing exclusively on FIP, the margin between Cain and Gallardo was extremely close - just 0.08. If we assume that after his first full season Gallardo will continue to develop much the same way Cain has (Cain had a 4.15 ERA and 3.96 FIP his first full year that sank to 3.65 and 3.78 respectively the next year) he could narrow or even pass Cain in terms of runs allowed. The strikeout differential is obviously in Gallardo's favor, and what ultimately tips the scales on deciding which player to choose first.

It's close, but Gallardo's better. And if you don't think it really will make much difference in the end just go back to a past rotisserie or head to head league and see what five more strikeouts or one more win could have done. Every player has their own tier.

Team Outlook: Of the 217.2 innings Cain pitched in 2009, Bengie Molina was the catcher for 170.2 innings. Molina is very close to signing with the Mets, so it looks like Cain will be working with a new batterymate next season. Cain's WHIP with Molina behind the plate was 1.15 while with Eli Whiteside and Buster Posey it was 1.30. Out of fairness to those two players, particularly Posey whom the Giants will hope can catch full time next year, Molina had the benefit of working with Cain for three full seasons. Molina had an understanding of what Cain was comfortable throwing in certain situations whereas someone like Posey (who only caught him once) probably just got an idea of the four pitches Cain throws period. Posey was a shortstop in college and is still making adjustments to playing catcher, so it might take time before Cain gets comfortable next year.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #17 Starting Pitcher; ESPN.com: #68 Overall; Mock Draft Central ADP: #89 Overall; Couch Managers: #90 Overall

Projection: Cain's been around forever so he should start to...wait my bad. He's still only 25 years old. Scary.
15 wins 3.64 ERA 1.28 WHIP 178K in 210 innings

Adam Jones Player Projection No. 95

Key Stats: When a player is named to the All-Star team before his 24th birthday it's usually a good idea to take notice. Adam Jones was one of those players like Elvis Andrus this year that had the right combination of things going for him to potentially break out and Jones did just that. He did a little of everything, but not too much of anything. It would have been interesting to see where his numbers would have gone had he played out the last month of the season which was lost to a sprained ankle. This was the pace he was on September 1st:

96 R 22 HR 81 RBI 12 SB

Skeptics Say: While those numbers are good, assuming that Jones was an All-Star from that kind of a season would not be a given. The only reason Jones was at the All-Star game was because his first half production was much better than his second half. Sometimes hitters can't readjust to the adjustments made on them after initial success. The adjustment for Jones needs to happen with his plate discipline. He walked about once every three times he struck out last year - which was an improvement from 2008, but still not a great rate stat. Hopefully it was just Jones hitting a wall in the second half, but I'm a little worried given that this happened in his second season rather than the first.

Peer Comparison: Depending on which fantasy scholars you ask, Jones can be worth anywhere from a late fifth round pick to around an 11th round pick. Tristian Cockcroft of ESPN.com has him higher than anyone I've seen, and I have to question Cockcroft ranking Jones ahead of Adam Lind.

Both Lind and Jones are coming off of breakout seasons, but Lind was more consistent and just plain more than Jones. Lind's OPS in the second half was 10 points better in the first half. Jones' OPS was 143 points worse in the second half. Lind had more runs, home runs, RBI, a better average and a better OPS than Jones. The only stats that Jones would seem to make a run at Lind on would be runs and steals. Given that Lind is expected to be Toronto's full-time number three hitter next season (he spent half the year in the number five slot) Lind will have more opportunities to score runs next year and should compete with Jones in that category as well.

ESPN is too radical for Jones, but CBS is too radical against him. He is ranked behind outfielders such as Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Carlos Lee. All of those players are in their mid 30s and have serious questions which have already been addressed in their player profiles (click links for details). As a tie-breaker on who to take ask who you'd rather keep in 2011.

Lineup Outlook: Jones was the number two hitter for most of last year hitting between Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. It would be hard to ask for more from Roberts, but Markakis had an average season by any standard. By the end of the season it was Matt Wieters who was taking over the third spot in the batting order, and it could be Wieters who is called upon for good this year to take that spot in the order. If that is the case and Wieters breaks out too, (a lot of ifs here) Jones production will be at the level Cockcroft expects it to be.

What They're Saying: CBS Sportsline: #35 Outfielder; ESPN.com: #60 Overall; Mock Draft Central: #83 Overall; Couch Managers: #112 Overall

Projection: Jones makes the adjustments and improvements in his third year.
100R 23 HR 72 RBI 14 SB .286 AVG .815 OPS